Boilerplate: The intent of this graph is to show overall economic activity in the U.S. by combining the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services indices into a single index weighted by the size of the corresponding sector. Values above 50 indicate growth. Values below 50 indicate temporary aberrations (such as bad weather), sample errors, outdated methodologies, or reporting bias. This data series is experimental and untested.
April 2007 Commentary
The index shows what appears to be a sharp rebound in U.S. economic activity. This may be an accurate reflection of reality, however in the past this series has been sufficiently noisy to make month-to-month changes largely useless for identifying new trends (the current trend is still decisively downward). In fact, in a hypothetical situation where the U.S. economy was heading into recession, it would probably be surprising not to see some false rebounds on the way down. April's uptick does make next month's data potentially more meaningful if it shows continued strength, though.
Note: This commentary is also experimental and untested.
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